Fall Housing Rebound Leaves Toronto Behind: RBC Warns of a Split Canadian Market

Fall Housing Rebound Leaves Toronto Behind: What RBC’s Latest Report Reveals

Canada’s housing market is finally showing signs of life this fall — but if you’re a homeowner or buyer in the Greater Toronto Area, the recovery may feel frustratingly out of reach.

According to a new analysis from RBC Economics, the national housing rebound has been uneven, with many markets gaining momentum while Toronto and parts of southern Ontario continue to lag.

Let’s break down what’s happening, why Toronto is struggling, and what this could mean heading into 2026.

A Split Housing Recovery Across Canada

RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue says the housing market has “kicked into gear” in recent months, with stronger resale activity recorded across much of the country in November.

Markets that saw month-over-month resale increases include:

• Vancouver and the Fraser Valley

• Calgary and Edmonton

• Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg

• Montreal

In several of these cities, resales rose by more than 5% compared to October. Even markets that had been unusually quiet earlier in the year showed what RBC called a “notable improvement” in buyer activity.

However, that momentum hasn’t carried over everywhere.

Toronto: Slower Sales, More Inventory, Falling Prices

While other regions picked up steam, Toronto continued to lose momentum.

RBC’s report confirms a trend that’s been building for months:

• Home resales in Toronto have stalled

• Inventory levels remain high

• Sellers are facing intense competition

• Prices are gradually drifting lower

Despite a small 0.6% month-over-month increase in sales in November, activity across the GTA remains roughly 25% below pre-pandemic norms.

According to Hogue, several factors are weighing on buyer confidence in the Toronto area:

• Tariff-related economic uncertainty

• Weaker job prospects

• Slower immigration growth

• Little urgency to buy when listings are plentiful and prices are softening

He also noted that condo prices are experiencing the strongest downward pressure, largely due to rising supply and cautious investor demand.

In short, when supply significantly outweighs demand, prices tend to follow — and that’s exactly what’s happening in Toronto right now.

Montreal Holds Firm as Buyers Compete for Detached Homes

Montreal continues to stand out as one of Canada’s steadier housing markets.

RBC estimates home resales rose about 1% in November, continuing a slow but consistent recovery that has been underway since 2023.

Key drivers in Montreal include:

• Low and stable inventory

• Limited new supply compared to demand

• Buyers bidding more aggressively, especially for detached homes

As a result, the median price of single-detached homes in Montreal is up 5.8% year-over-year, while condo prices have remained flat due to increased supply.

Vancouver and Calgary: Resilient, But Still Under Pressure

Vancouver’s market remains subdued overall, with resale activity still more than 15% below its 10-year average. That said, RBC points to early signs of renewed confidence.

Sales increased in both October and November, with the latest monthly gain exceeding 4% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Buyers are benefiting from significantly more choice, as the number of homes for sale has doubled since 2022.

Even so, prices remain under pressure, with Vancouver’s MLS benchmark sitting nearly 4% below last year.

In Calgary, resale activity jumped more than 5% in November, reaching its strongest level since January. However, prices are still down year-over-year, largely due to a surge in new construction.

Builders in Calgary are currently working on a record 26,500 housing units, pushing inventory to a seven-year high and keeping upward price pressure in check.

What This Means Heading Into 2026

RBC expects these regional differences to continue into early 2026.

Markets with abundant supply — including Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary — may experience further price softness. Meanwhile, parts of Quebec and the Prairies could maintain modest gains where inventory remains tight.

A broader national recovery is expected to take shape gradually as economic growth improves and labour markets stabilize. However, affordability challenges and the upcoming mortgage renewal cycle will play a major role in shaping buyer and seller behaviour.

The Bank of Canada estimates that roughly 60% of mortgages will renew by 2026, with many homeowners facing significant payment increases. This renewal wave adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly in higher-priced markets like the GTA.

The Bottom Line

Canada’s housing market isn’t turning a single corner — it’s moving in different directions depending on location.

For Toronto homeowners and buyers, today’s market is defined by patience, pricing strategy, and careful timing. High inventory and softer prices can create opportunity, but only with the right guidance.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply trying to understand what this market means for your home, reach out. I’d be happy to help you make sense of where things stand and what your next move should be.