GTA Housing Market Update: Sales Are Up, But Prices Are Still Sliding

The GTA Housing Market: A Tale of Two Trends

The latest numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) are in — and they tell a story of a market that’s moving, but still under pressure.

In September 2025:

• 5,592 homes were sold ? up 8.5% year over year

• Average selling price: $1,059,377 ? down 4.7%

• Benchmark HPI price ? down 5.5%

So yes — sales are climbing, but prices continue to soften. It feels like the market is “waking up,” but sellers aren’t getting the numbers they were hoping for.

Why Are Prices Still Falling?

The answer comes down to supply vs demand.

• Active listings: 29,394 ? up 18.9%

• New listings: up 3.9%

• Average days on market: 33 days (up from 27 last year)

• Median days on market: 51 days (up from 42 last year)

Simply put, there are more homes for sale than buyers ready to purchase. Even with more deals happening, it’s not enough to keep prices steady. Homes are sitting longer, and sellers are being forced to adjust their expectations.

Different Home Types, Different Results

Not every property type is performing the same way. Here’s how September 2025 looked across the GTA:

• Detached homes ? Sales +9.6%, Prices –5.1%

• Semi-detached ? Sales +11%, Prices –6.8%

• Condos ? Sales +7.2%, Prices –4.3%

• Townhouses (416 area) ? Sales +40%, Prices –5%

The clear standout here is Toronto townhouses. With sales jumping nearly 40%, it shows buyers are looking for that “sweet spot” — more space than a condo, but still more affordable than a detached.

416 vs 905: A Tale of Two Markets

Geography also plays a major role in how the market is performing.

• Toronto (416) detached homes ? down less than 1%

• 905 detached homes ? down over 7%

That means while the city core is holding up relatively well, the suburbs (Mississauga, Brampton, Durham, York) are seeing steeper price declines.

The Bigger Economic Picture

The housing market doesn’t exist in isolation. The broader economy is having a major impact:

• Canada GDP ? down 1.6% in Q2

• Toronto unemployment ? up to 9%

• Inflation ? sitting at 1.7%

• Bank of Canada interest rate ? cut to 2.5% in September

Lower interest rates are giving buyers a bit of relief on mortgage costs, but rising unemployment and slowing GDP growth are weighing on buyer confidence.

Have We Hit Bottom Yet?

Short answer: probably not.

Here’s why experts believe prices could still slide:

• Supply continues to grow faster than demand

• Inventory levels are still climbing

• Sellers are lowering expectations

• Affordability remains out of reach for many buyers

Until demand catches up, the market hasn’t fully stabilized.

What to Watch Next

If you’re following the market closely, here are the key indicators to keep an eye on:

• Interest rate changes

• Number of active listings

• Days on market

• Price stabilization

• Job growth and overall economy

These factors will signal whether we’re heading toward recovery or if the softness continues.

Key Takeaways

• Sales are rising, but prices are still falling.

• Townhouses in Toronto (416) are outperforming, with sales up nearly 40%.

• Detached homes in the 905 are facing the biggest price declines.

• We likely haven’t hit bottom yet.

?? For buyers, this is good news: more inventory, more choice, and more room to negotiate.
?? For sellers, it means setting realistic pricing strategies if you want your home to move.

?? Thinking of buying or selling in the GTA?
The market is shifting quickly, and strategy matters more than ever. Reach out at MariaHomes.ca for a personalized consultation.

 

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